10 Ways To Spot The 1% Of Crypto Projects That'll Survive The Next 3 Years
Most of the things you see in crypto today, will most likely be dead and buried 3 years from now.
How can you tell which projects are most likely to survive in the long run?
1. Study (in-depth) the history of money and markets
For many of the mistakes being made today are the same ones that were made hundreds of years ago. And those who profited from those mistakes long ago... hold the formula for profiting from those mistakes again today.
2. Beware of first mover disadvantage
Because every iteration builds and improves upon the previous iterations.
Friendster came first. MySpace came later and did better. But Facebook buried them both. Yet now it's getting manhandled by TikTok. Beware of projects that are the first to try the field.
3. Does the project actually have a legit reason to exist?
A lot of people are jumping onto the crypto train and starting new projects just because they can. And because it's cool.
But does the project actually have a reason to exist?
Is it offering actual utility that needs to be provided? Or is it just there for the sake of being there and can be easily replaced by hundreds of other alternatives?
4. Strong, established branding makes a massive difference
Either the project is doing an amazing job of building their brand in the mass social consciousness, like what Bitcoin has done. Or they're piggy backing onto existing brands that have long established their footing.
And the reason for that is... it helps a lot with...
5. Crossing the chasm from innovation and early adoption to the mass market
This is where most projects fail. They reach the early adopters. But never make it into the stages of the mainstream market.
Does the project have what it takes to cross the chasm?
6. Psychology trumps technology
Most crypto projects understand the technology side of things.
The problems happen when it comes to understanding psychology. And how people actually behave. Which most projects founders are still clueless about.
Is the project being run by people who understand how the human brain works?
7. Invest in people, not ideas
The success of a project is a multiplier of "idea" x "execution". And execution boils down to people.
Do the people running the project have a track record of success? Not just technology wise, but psychology wise.
Are they operating within their areas of strength and competency? And do they have solid fundamental understanding of business, management, finance and marketing principles?
8. Avoid extremes
There's a lot of extremism in crypto.
Project founders tend to create stuff that throws out the baby with the bath water.
They throw out the benefits of fiat and centralization along with all the disadvantages. And end up creating something at the other end of the spectrum that ends up being extremely unstable in the long run.
9. People tend to become what they strongly disagree with in the long run
For example, the crypto movement started with opposition to how the monetary system currently works. And a select few controlled the finances of the many.
In many ways, crypto project founders have been trending in the same direction they disagreed with. Trying to keep the newcomers out. And building an elite inner circle or community.
Is the project you're looking at starting to become what they set out to avoid in the first place?
10. Is The Project Dominating Its Niche Or Is It Just One Among Many?
And is the niche it's dominating something that'll continue growing year after year in future?