The Right Way to “Bet Long”

Preview

1. Disagree on an Empirically Provable Future Event

2. Set a Deadline

3. Set the terms of the bet exactly and have multiple third parties verify the claim and counterclaim

4. Put it in writing; signed by both parties.

5. Wager a non trivial amount of capital

6. Place equal amounts of risked capital into a 3rd party custodial/escrow account

7. Each bettor chooses how to invest their stake (in other words, I can put it on a 6% return ETF and you can go all in on penny stocks)

8. After the time is up, whoever’s prediction came true claims all of the funds in the account.