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James Altucher



At some point I've been worried about all of the below.

But it's important to do your own research (not the media research) and it's important to know what you can control, what you should worry about, and when you should just live your life and try to be improve every day in life (like writing down ten ideas a day).

The media feeds off of our worries. And there are worrisome things in the world of course. But, in the long run, if you are not directly involved in these worrisome things, then trust that things will be fine and sleep well. Here are some examples.

    1. UKRAINE

    There won't be a full out war. Russia doesn't have the army to occupy and nation-built. But they do want the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine and they want guarantees that Ukraine won't join Nato. Once this is resolved, everyone will be relieved and markets will go up.


    Inflation becomes worrisome when it is hyper inflation. When a loaf of bread costs $10 one day and $1,000,000 a week later.

    This typically happens when a country borrows in a currency that is not theirs. Like if Argentina borrows dollars or when Germany owes reparations in the 20s in pounds.

    The Fed is not taking an active response to inflation. They don't see it as a worry. Even if they do 5 rate hikes, that brings niterest rates to, tops, 2% which is not enough to persuade people to suddenly start putting money in savings accounts.

    Much of current inflation is still transitory related to the pandemic. And some inflation is good for the economy (the past century of inflation has been also an enormous economic boom in the US)

    3. CIVIL WAR 2

    Polarization, censorship, right vs left, seems incredibly high. People talking Civil War 2, etc. But Americans are basically too lazy to do anything radical as a society. 

    The average American watches 3.1 hours of TV every day. They aren't going to go from that to picking up guns and having a war.


    Omicron was a last gasp. Yes it's dangerous. Yes, people are dying. But the trend seems to be that Coronavirus is mutating to weaker versions. A virus wants to live, so it mutates weaker so it can spread more (dead people can't spread). SARS1 still lives, for instance, but is symptomless.

    Yes, there will be more pandemics. But now we know how to deal with them much more effectively. See on the image how daily cases is now dipping sharply.

    This is a good sign as a virus doesn't mutate that fast and now many people have immunity either through vaccine or because they had it.



    People predicting a crash have forgotten that something like 40% of the world's money supply was printed in the last two years. That money has barely begun to filter into the economy. It will continue to do so for the next few years, buffering any volatility in the stock market. Plus, the Fed would have to increase rates 6-7% to have any real effect on the market. This doesn't seem to be happening.

    Meanwhile, there are several exponentially growing industries that will grow no matter what:
    - genomics
    - AI
    - robotics
    - biotech
    - crypto


    Perhaps I am most worried about the trend here.

    It's a bit worrisome that Canada has basically declared martial law during the (what seems to be) peaceful protests of the truckers. 

    Similarly, although it probably was necessary, it was a bit worrisome that the US overrided the constitution when shutting down all businesses during the pandemic (you can't deprive people of a right to make a living without due process). 

    That said, people saw the consequences and now we are getting protests, assurances by govt officials that similar lockdowns won't happen, etc. And we know better how to respond to pandemic level problems. 

    People need to make a living or the consequences are too much money printing, possible inflation, and the "Great Resignation" that we are seeing now. Plus, the side effects of hurting children who can't go to school, other medical procedures not happening, increase in suicides and domestic violence, etc.


    A) we don't even recognize Taiwan.
    B) Taiwan is a leader in semiconductors but US & friends will bomb all the semiconductor factories to deprive China of access. This would remove the economic reasons to invade Taiwan.
    C) the Taiwanese population is 1% of China's population. Not sure why China would even invade. Pointless other than a pride point.


    - Chinese economy at $18 trillion vs US $15 trillion. So by 2030 it will probably be higher.
    - So what? The US economy is the biggest but this hasn't really hurt the UK, Germany, South Korea, other big economies.

    9. PRIVACY

    - we long ago gave up on privacy. Google knows everything about us and cooperates with the government all the time.
    - There are alternatives: crypto gives more privacy in financial transactions and sites like DuckDuckgo are good alternatives to Google. But, the fact that DDG has only 1% market share vs Google shows that not many people care about this.


    Every example of AI shows that it is good at ONE thing. An AI engine for computer vision on cars as an example. An AI engine to play chess. The AI engine to play chess can't also taste an apple and tell me it's good. There are ZERO general purpose AI systems and we are ZERO closer to AI having some form of human-like "consciousness" compared to where we were in 1950. 
    Some examples of "negative AI" can be found in Kai-Ful Lee's excellent book, 2041, but these are fictional (but possible) examples that have solutions.

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