Becoming more open to the possibility that Bitcoin is bullshit
My thought on Bitcoin has long been about asymmetry, it could go to a bazillion or go to zero. A small amount invested could have a huge payoff. I am far from a true believer however. I own some spread across a few accounts. I bought at a pretty low price in Dec of 2018. Later, I sold a little and have bought back in here an there but am a few bucks below where I topped out.
1. It could be replaced
From the start, one source of skepticism from me has been that all of its supposed attributes could ascribe to some yet to be created token/network. To the extent it is a network, why couldn't something better come along?
Do a search on Twitter and you will find shills, touts and carnival barkers. When the price goes up they pound their chests. When the price goes down they have explanations for why that is a good thing.
3. Low time preference
I love the concept of low time preference aka delayed gratification aka playing the long game. I've essentially built my life on this premise. But here, I get a feeling that the touts who might know it is all bullshit use "low time preference" as a device to keep the suckers in. I obviously don't know if it is BS but if there ends up being bagholders, it won't be the touts.
4. Mental gymnastics
One of the biggest Bitcoin proponents is Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy. Here's an interesting clip of him on CNBC. Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized but he touts government validation as Congress tries to figure out how to regulate it. This sort of thing is rife among the touts.
5. Why Bitcoin?
The touts list all of the problems that Bitcoin solves, "Bitcoin fixes this" they say. They could be 100% right about every problem in the world and yes attributes like the ones Bitcoin is supposed to have could solve them but why must it be Bitcoin that solves anything? Because they say so? Why must something created 13 years ago that has a limited supply be the thing that fixes everything? There is no reason it must be Bitcoin that solves every problem.
6. I still HODL
It could be the real deal. It could go from here, down to zero (more likely efffectively worthless not literally so). It could be BS that still goes up 10 fold yet again but I am becoming increasingly skeptical. If you own some and it grows into a large enough piece of money to change your life, sell it and let it change your life.