My day on Twitter during a terrible day for markets
1. Celsius blows up
I'd never heard of this one before today. Interesting to see Bitcoin getting pushed around by this one. The odd that BTC is bullshit are going up. It being bullshit and going up 20x from here can coexist. A little more on CELUSD thanks to Bespoke Investment Group. It was yielding 17%. A behavior that repeats EVERY cycle. You can't get a safe (in this case) 17% yield in a 2% world.
2. Microstrategy margin call
Michael Saylor has pretty much turned Microstrategy (MSTR) into a leveraged Bitccoin proxy. Literally leveraged with multiple convertible bond issues to buy more. He recently said $21000 on BTC is about where they'd run into trouble.
3. BondBloxx filed for target duration treasury ETFs
"I had this conversation with Bruce Lavine, the first CEO of WisdomTree at the dawn of the ETF era. I said I had no interest in things like TLT because you're not locking in a yield for clients. However many years later Bulletshares came along and I've been using those for clients. Buying treasuries are pretty simple but I think this will fill a need for advisors." I misinterpreted this. This does not solve the problem like Bulletshares does.
4. Saylor telling people lever up to buy BTC
Don't listen to shills. Want to make a small bet on asymmetry, realizing it could go to $0? Go for it, right there with you. But don't listen to the shills and touts. They need bagholders if it all turns out to be bullshit.
Here's a link to a video where Saylor says to mortgage your house and your business to Bitcoin.
5. Keep the decline in perspective
Make sure to get some exercise today, get a little sun and do something fun (there's college baseball on after the close), all the more so if you're in the process of learning you had too much in equities, duration or crypto.
6. Risk parity is not a place to hide
Risk parity getting crushed. I blog about this every so often. Intellectually, I want it to work (I know, I know, but still) but it gives a picking up nickels in front of a steamroller vibe. Have never pulled the trigger on this strategy.
7. Should the Fed raise, 50. 75 or 100?
My comment on a poll asking that question: IMO 75 indicates a partial admission they've been wrong and reacting accordingly without panicking.
8. Becoming Mannheim
The passage in the picture was written by Nassim Taleb 25 years ago. My comment: older Gen-X here, every so often I feel Lou Mannheim. Mannheim was the Hal Holbrook character in the movie Wall Street.
9. Robo advisors
Maybe I'm the only one but robo advisors seem like version 1.0 of something else coming.
No comments.