10 popular thoughts that I disagree with
Inspired by @chris407x
I don't think this is true. I believe the utility of a global currency that cannot be controlled by any one entity and can be used to send money across borders cheaply will continue to grow.
I think AI will replace some jobs but create new jobs. Like, self-driving cars meant that Uber drivers had to find new jobs (maintenance, etc). But now they have those jobs so they are not unemployed.
This seems like a silly thought but I hear it all the time. The reason I disagree is because of what bubbles really are. A bubble occurs when an asset trades at an irrational value compared to its utility or fundamental value. So for instance, in 1999 people were paying $10 billion for companies with $1 billion in revenues and $100 million in losses. This was irrational and unsustainable so the bubble popped when investors realized there was no rational reason to pay such high prices for these companies (the fundamentals didn't justify the price).
People say this all the time but it's not true. It's both, just like dollars are both (even though dollars are technically "Federal Reserve Notes" which means "legal tender".) People use dollars as stores of value because they trust them as legal tender and they have more utility than other currencies since you can use them anywhere in the world.
I've written about this before but I don't believe this at all.
The financial crisis would have never happened if there was more regulation on banks and mortgages and derivatives etc. Well...no it wouldn't have happened anyway because we would've had no banking industry left after all of the regulations that would've been put on banks after such a crisis. There's always going to be fraudsters out there who find ways around regulations or move their operations overseas where regulations don't exist or aren't enforced as well as here in the US. The only thing that might help prevent another financial crisis is if there is no financial industry left here in the US after all of the regulations that would need to be passed in order to prevent another future crisis if history repeats itself again (which it always does).
They won't overtake us militarily since we spend so much more than them on our military budget while they spend less than 1% of their GDP on their military budget compared to ours (and even less than that once you factor in R&D spending which we do far more than China does.) They won't overtake us economically unless we go into some sort of economic collapse which then allows them to buy up our assets cheaply (unlikely). Technologically, who knows? We're still ahead but every year China invests over $100B into R&D whereas we invest about half that amount so who knows how long that lead will last? But even if China becomes #1 economically or technologically or militarily then why care? If you live here, you'll benefit from any economic growth here regardless whether China grows faster than us or not. Also, US debt is denominated in dollars so we can print as many dollars as needed to fund whatever projects/budgets/military actions we want without worrying about inflation since inflation only happens when currency flows out of circulation faster than new currency comes into circulation (which doesn't happen with government spending since government spending creates new money supply). Again, even if none of these things happen, why care? You'll benefit from any growth
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