A Guessing Game From the News: Who is the Culprit?

The blasting of the Nord Stream pipelines will have serious consequences, especially for the economies in the EU. Aside from that, it's a bit of a guessing game: there's a lot of speculation on social media as to who did it and what the motives were.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/09/28/sabotage-and-deliberate-acts-suspected-in-mysterious-nord-stream-leaks-eu-says

https://www.heute.at/s/stecken-usa-hinter-dem-sabotageakt-von-nordstream-100230901

A Guessing Game From the News: Who is the Culprit?

Preview

1. Russia

Some say the acts of sabotage bear the KGB's signature. Their purpose is to demonstrate that Russia can do great damage to the West by damaging vital infrastructure.

The fact that the Russians have invested heavily in these pipelines speaks against this. Why should they destroy their own infrastructure, of all things? They could open and close these pipelines at will. They were an important asset for a profitable position as a supplier.

2. USA

The Americans, on the other hand, can now sell their fracking gas at high prices. It is also in their geostrategic interest to prevent future cooperation between the Russians and the Europeans (particularly the Germans).

Also, president Biden threatened to "bring an end" to Nordstream 2 in February:

On the other hand, it would not be in the interests of the USA to put pressure on Europe instead of Russia. Also, a sharp raise to gas prices in Europe would also affect the US-economy.

3. Poland, Ukraine

Both of these countries have a vital interest, that Russian gas transfer will pass through their territory in the future. Would they be able to carry out such an action?

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/former-ministers-nord-stream-sabotage-tweet-causes-uproar-in-poland/

4. What will the Danish and Swedish investigators find?

If the investigators find nothing at all, that could also give clues to the culprit. Or they actually find nothing.

5. Other suspects?

It is also possible that climate-critical activists or extremists of Muslim splinter groups are behind the attacks. However, these groups would proudly commit to such an action.

6. Could it be a false flag operation?

Both the Americans and the Russians would benefit greatly from convicting the other side with evidence.

yigitcakar @yigitcakar

@paolo I wrote under this post a lengthy comment, but it disappeared.

I think I wrote it while Fritz edited his post, and when I posted it disappeared. Might be a bug.

Reply2 Replies0

paolo @paolo

thanks for letting me know. we'll look into it asap!

Reply 1 Reply0

Happy to be of help! I love NotePD!

Reply0

We manged to retrieve the comment and will get it back soon!

Wow! I thought it was gone for good! Thank you!

When trying to solve the mystery of a nefarious act, it is always helpful to think about who benefits the most from it. Winter is coming, and Russia is about to get the upper hand because Europe has been dependent on Russian gas. Making sure that the largest pipeline doesn't work reduces the willingness of Europe to sit at a table with Russia. This is definitely not in Russia's interest. Europe would definitely want lower prices and to have access to gas, so for the time being, we can cross their name as well. America has been benefiting from the war in Ukraine since the moment sanctions on Russia were implemented. America had nothing major to do with Russia anyway and didn't like sitting at the same table either. All of Biden's talks have been about democratic countries and authoritarian countries that democratic countries have to endure because of economic ties and problems that require a global cooperative solution, such as global warming. The recent divide made the public think Biden was right, and made Europe give support to all the sanctions etc. that made the European and Russian economies crumble while the American economy rose further above the Chinese economy, which was getting closer to surpassing the American economy. America definitely has an interest in prolonging the conflict, not only for economic interests but to strengthen its position as the big brother. One party you haven't talked about but I think might be viable is Ukraine. The Ukrainians have shown ingenuity and a willingness to do what is necessary to save their country. Everybody knows that when you have problems in your country, your citizens are less willing to help another country. And Ukraine is standing against Russia because of all the help it gets. Winter is coming and Europeans will freeze and have an economic down spiral. Right-wing parties have already started winning elections, and they would be more and more willing to sit with Russia and reach an agreement. Well, if they cannot reach the natural gas anyway, why would they sit at the table for an agreement? Most of the other countries that might be able to pull such a feat off would be unwilling to face Russian or European wrath. So, I believe it was either America or Ukraine. Everybody else loses while those two win. What do you think?

DrFritzS @DrFritzS

People (and nations) who are fighting for their life are able to do all kinds of crazy stuff. However, it is not in the best interest of Ukraine if the economies in the EU are crumbling and people are sitting in the cold. Such a situation makes it tempting to seek an agreement with Russia.

Economies in the EU are already crumbling, and it is largely the result of sanctions against Russia. If there is no pipeline, there is also no reason to sit and talk with Russia because Russia cannot provide an easy solution to the gas and energy crisis that Russia caused by stopping the gas.

Of course, that's just hypothesis. I would love Ukrainians to win and start rebuilding their country asap.

DrFritzS

A Guessing Game From the News: Who is the Culprit?

1. Russia

2. USA

3. Poland, Ukraine

4. What will the Danish and Swedish investigators find?

5. Other suspects?

6. Could it be a false flag operation?

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