Mental Models - Book Takeaway 2
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1. Ignore Black Swan
We should ignore big, unforeseeable events. If we can predict them, worrying won't change anything. If they are random we may waste time preparing for the wrong thing.
2. Look for equilibrium points
Diminishing returns - just because you enjoy one doughnut doesn't mean you'll enjoy ten doughnuts ten times more. You may actually hate the tenth one. (unless you're Homer Simpson).
We often predict more is always better, but this isn't always the case.
What are you sacrificing when it comes to gaining more of one thing? Is it worth it? To what point is it worth it
The goldilocks effect - too much and too little are bad, aim for just right.
3. Wait for the regression to the mean
Don't let extremes cloud your judgement, look to the mean and make judgements there.
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