The Right Way to “Bet Long”
Preview
1. Disagree on an Empirically Provable Future Event
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2. Set a Deadline
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3. Set the terms of the bet exactly and have multiple third parties verify the claim and counterclaim
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4. Put it in writing; signed by both parties.
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5. Wager a non trivial amount of capital
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6. Place equal amounts of risked capital into a 3rd party custodial/escrow account
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7. Each bettor chooses how to invest their stake (in other words, I can put it on a 6% return ETF and you can go all in on penny stocks)
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8. After the time is up, whoever’s prediction came true claims all of the funds in the account.
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